Development of a Climate-Sensitive Matrix Growth Model for Larix gmelinii Mixed-Species Natural Forests and Its Application for Predicting Forest Dynamics under Different Climate Scenarios

Larix gmelinii natural forests, which are of great ecological and economic importance, mainly distributed in northeast China. Sustainable management these forests play a vital role security China, especially the context climate change. Forest growth models, support forest decision-making, lacking for hampering prescription strategies. In this study, we produced climate-sensitive, transition-matrix model (CM) forests. For comparison, variable transition without including change effects (NCM) fixed-parameter (FM) were also built. We examined performance CM, NCM, FM by conducting short- (5 years) long-term (100 simulations. The results showed that short-term prediction, no significant difference was observed among three predictive models. However, prediction ability CM under different RCPs superior to NCM. number trees basal area predicted increase change, might result disasters, such as snow break, windthrow, fire. Silvicultural practices, reducing intermediate thinning interval enrichment planting slow-growing trees, should be implemented mitigate deleterious